Confidence level
August 21, 2026
Not all the predictions offered by SignalTurf carry the same level of reliability.
Depending on a race’s characteristics, some predictions appear more solid than others. To help interpret them, SignalTurf assigns a confidence level to each bet type.
This confidence level complements the predictions by estimating the likelihood that the proposed bet is successful. It helps quickly identify the analyses the models consider most robust.
Why a confidence level?
Showing only a horse selection isn’t always enough to gauge the quality of an analysis.
Two predictions may look similar while carrying very different probabilities of success.
The confidence level highlights this difference and provides extra context for the predictions offered.
How is it calculated?
After predictions are generated, SignalTurf uses a dedicated evaluation model.
This model analyzes numerous signals from the artificial intelligence models to estimate, for each bet type, the probability that the prediction will win.
This probability is then converted into a score between 0 and 6.
In the app, only levels 1 to 6 are displayed. When a prediction doesn’t carry sufficient confidence, no confidence level is shown.
How to interpret the levels
The higher the confidence level, the more the models estimate that the associated prediction carries a strong likelihood of success.
Conversely, a lower level reflects a prediction considered more uncertain.
These levels are calibrated based on the models’ observed historical performance so that each level corresponds to a consistent probability of success.
This makes it easier to compare predictions across different races and bet types.
Customizing the display
You can choose the minimum confidence level shown in the app.
For example, if you select level 4, only predictions with a confidence level of 4, 5, or 6 will be highlighted.
This setting only changes how confidence levels are displayed. The predictions calculated by SignalTurf remain exactly the same.
What the confidence level doesn’t mean
The confidence level isn’t:
- a guarantee of winnings.
- a certainty about a race’s outcome.
- a recommendation to place or not place a bet.
It’s a statistical estimate based on the historical performance of the artificial intelligence models. Like any estimate, it remains subject to the uncertainties inherent to horse racing.
Use it alongside other indicators
The confidence level is most meaningful when used together with all the information offered by SignalTurf.
For each race, it’s recommended to look at:
- the selected horses.
- the confidence level associated with each bet type.
- the convergence indicator (Premium), when available.
This information complements each other to provide a more complete reading of the models’ analysis.
An indicator that changes
Like predictions, confidence levels can change up until a race starts.
When a new analysis is carried out, probabilities are recalculated and confidence levels are automatically updated to reflect the latest available information.
Continuously improving
How the confidence level is calculated evolves at the same pace as SignalTurf’s artificial intelligence models.
With every new generation of models, the evaluation methods are retrained and recalibrated to progressively improve the quality of the estimated probabilities.
Go further
The confidence level complements the predictions. For Premium subscribers, it can be reinforced by the convergence indicator, which highlights analyses where several independent models reach the same conclusions.
The Convergence chapter explains how the analyses produced by these models and the confidence levels are complemented by an indicator designed to make them easier to interpret.
You can also check out the Performance chapter to discover the historical results achieved by the different confidence levels.